GATES DROPS THE "D" WORD ON IRAN.  ISN'T THAT A SIN IN OBAMALAND? – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  From the Washington Times: 

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Sunday that Iran's government is becoming a military dictatorship, with religious leaders being sidelined and, as a result, new sanctions could pressure Tehran into curbing its illegal nuclear program.

"What we've seen is a change in the nature of the regime in Tehran over the past 18 months or so," Mr. Gates said on "Fox News Sunday."

"You have a much narrower-based government in Tehran now," he said. "Many of the religious figures are being set aside."

The defense secretary said Iranians "appear to be moving more in the direction of a military dictatorship."

Iran's supreme leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, "is leaning on a smaller and smaller group of advisers," he said. "In the meantime, you have an illegitimate election that has divided the country."

"There's no doubt that Iran's military and security forces are playing an active role in running the regime," said a U.S. official familiar with assessments on Iran. "Religious leaders like Khamenei continue to make key decisions and rely on the vast security apparatus to carry them out."

Gates expanded on his comments in this exchange with Chris Wallace:

WALLACE: Can we contain a nuclear Iran?

GATES: I don't think we're prepared to even talk about containing a nuclear Iran. I think we're — we — our view still is we do not accept the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons. And our policies and our efforts are all aimed at preventing that from happening.

WALLACE: When you say that a — we would not accept a nuclear Iran, does that mean that a military strike either by the U.S. or Israel is preferable to a nuclear Iran?

GATES: I — we obviously leave all options on the table. I think we have some time to continue working this problem.

COMMENT:  We get the sense that Gates is going through the motions in endorsing sanctions, and realizes they probably won't work.  He was wise to avoid discussing "containment" of Iran, as that would imply surrender to Iran's nuclear program and the inevitability of Tehran getting the bomb.  But there's a reckoning ahead, possibly around the time of our 2012 election, two years away.  That's two more years of progress for Iran.

I've said here before that a successful air strike against Iran just before the 2012 election could put Barack Obama back in the White House.  I hate to sound cynical, but...

June 21, 2010